The Cryosphere & National Security: What the Trump Administration Should Do (2/2)
By Cynthia Neil, ACWPS guest contributor
In my last post I examined what the heck a cryosphere is and why it matters to US national security. Melting ice from the earth’s mountain ranges will have significant negative impact on a key aspect of national security: our food supply. In this second andfinal post, I make some recommendations about what the incoming Trump Administration might do about it.
U.S. Government Response to Cryosphere Change
The Government Accountability Office (GAO) recommends coordination among various US Government Agencies, including the Department of Defense, The Department of Homeland Security, and EPA, to respond to threats from cryosphere and permafrost loss to Alaskans, which has more than 70 villages immediately at risk of coastal collapse. The Bureau of Indian Affairs estimates costs to relocate Alaska villages and damage to infrastructure at approximately $3.45 billion. GAO also partnered with 13 agencies to make recommendations to assist Americans in Alaska, California, Louisiana, and Maryland who are at risk from rising sea levels. GAO recommends that Congress should consider establishing a pilot program with leadership from a defined federal organizational arrangement to identify and provide assistance to climate migration projects for communities that express affirmative interest in relocation as a resilience strategy. As of May 21, 2024, no action has been taken.
International Response
To draw attention to the challenges posed to the international community due to cryosphere loss, the United Nations declared 2025-2034 as the “Decade of Action for Cryospheric Sciences” in August 2024. Actions include increased data collection, modelling, and monitoring of the cryosphere along with a global campaign to raise awareness of the importance of the cryosphere. In addition, 2025 has been named the International Year of Glaciers. These activities will serve as lead-ins to the Fifth International Polar Year (IPY) in 2032-2033, which coincides with the next US chair of the Arctic Council. The United States is expected to spearhead IPY activities and can be expected to be a scientific leader in the preservation of the frozen world.
National Security Considerations
In addition to water and food scarcity and sea level rise, displacement caused by natural disasters are expected to drive global migration past its current level of 117 million persons per year. Some 800 million people worldwide live in high mountain areas and may be directly affected by cryosphere loss. Though they can’t stop the ice from melting, American policymakers can mitigate economic risks in the western United States and help some 40 million Americans facing water scarcity in the Colorado River Basin. National security decision makers should take cryosphere projections into account in the ongoing great power competition in the Arctic. Increased shipping and resource extraction in the Arctic Ocean due to loss of sea ice will be a flashpoint in the coming decade due to loss of the cryosphere, with destabilizing effects on international security.
The incoming Trump administration can, as a start, implement the most impactful GAO recommendations to efficiently coordinate a targeted interagency response to cryosphere loss. By taking action, the Trump team can help mitigate risks to—rather than respond to crises in—Americans’ health, safety and prosperity.
Cynthia Neil is an Arctic subject matter expert and strategic communicator specializing in international public engagement, communicating risk to policymakers, multi-disciplinary dialogue facilitation, and Polar Affairs. She holds an MA in European Studies with a concentration in EU Institutions and Public Policy from Luiss University in Rome, Italy, a graduate diploma in Arctic Studies from the University of Iceland, Reykjavík, and an MA in Strategic Communication from the University of Iowa. Ms. Neil currently works as a Program Analyst at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency inWashington, DC.