The Cryosphere & National Security: What the Trump Administration Should Know (1/2)
By Cynthia Neil, ACWPS guest contributor
What the Heck is the Cryosphere?
Today, if you type cryosphere into an email, autocorrect is likely to reject it. This is about to change as the cryosphere—and the politics of ice—begin to impact water resources and food production in the United States in the coming years. The cryosphere is the term used to describe the glaciers, ice, and snow covering the Earth, about 10% of its total surface. Along with the atmosphere and the oceans, the cryosphere is the third major component of the Earth’s climate system and plays a critical role in the world’s freshwater supply. As the warming cycle of the Earth continues, the impacts of a melting cryosphere will affect a critical aspect of United States economic and national security: our food supply.
Ice is Power
Mountain snowpack in the western United States is a key water source that feeds groundwater and supports crops, livestock, and hydropower. Snowpack in the high mountain ranges of the United States declined approximately 18% from 1955-2023. In the Colorado River Basin, it is estimated that loss of snow since 2000 has resulted in a 10 trillion gallon deficit in groundwater in that region, which supplies fresh water to about 40 million Americans. This area produces around $60 billion worth of agricultural products, including 90% of the winter vegetables produced in the United States and an additional $1.4 trillion in economic activity annually. Globally, losses of snow and ice in the cryosphere are straining agricultural production, notably in Europe, the Hindu-Kush region, and the Andes. Barring a significant change in temperature trends, policymakers can continue to expect additional losses of freshwater due to loss of snowpack in the high altitudes and glacial ice declines in Antarctica, Greenland, and across the circumpolar north, including Alaska.
Water Loss, Food Insecurity, and Migration
Cryosphere loss in the coming decade is projected to have negative near- and long-term impacts on global water and food supplies for up to 2 billion people. Rising sea levels due to glacier melt and reduced access to adequate fresh water and food insecurity is expected to accelerate domestic and global migration. Approximately 10% of the world population, nearly 800 million people, live in the high mountain and Arctic regions, and face significant risks due to ice and snow loss. Resources of the United States and our international partners, strained by the displacement of 117 million migrants and refugees in 2023, are likely to be stretched further as more people are forced from their homes due to changing weather patterns accelerated by cryosphere loss. Permafrost collapse, coastal erosion, and negative impacts on subsistence lifeways have forced some of Alaska’s women and their families to relocate and can make travel less safe. Notably, the USDA reports that changing weather patterns exacerbated by cryosphere loss will have negative impacts on food production in the Northern Triangle of Central America, and may increase outbound migration from the area.
In my next post I will examine what the Trump administration can do about the changing cryosphere’s threat to national security and how international agencies are responding.
Cynthia Neil is an Arctic subject matter expert and strategic communicator specializing in international public engagement, communicating risk to policymakers, multi-disciplinary dialogue facilitation, and Polar Affairs. She holds an MA in European Studies with a concentration in EU Institutions and Public Policy from Luiss University in Rome, Italy, a graduate diploma in Arctic Studies from the University of Iceland, Reykjavík, and an MA in Strategic Communication from the University of Iowa. Ms. Neil currently works as a Program Analyst at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in Washington, DC.